When starting up this Company and putting together the website, the first words in our  description of Ubud were:   “Ubud is a town unlike any other ...”  

My feeling at the time was that this statement may be a bit over the top.  However, when listening to what expats had to say who knew Ubud from the last century, Ubud life must have been truly magical.  Look up some of the old photos.  (You find books at Ganesha Bookshop, Jl. Raya Ubud near the Post Office).  I only joined the Ubud Community in 2000, but even then when the streets already started to fill up with traffic, immediately felt - ‘this is a place where to expect ‘The Good Life’ to happen.

Today we are understandingly ‘peeved off’ with the ever worsening traffic situation, no parking, exhaust fumes, commercialization, street beggars and you may be able to add your own observations, but few say:  ‘here is the line, I am leaving”.

To your knowledge – is there any place except for example Greenland or the Kalahari where the environment improves instead of deteriorating?   And at those places, what about infrastructure and a friendly society?

Wouldn’t you agree there is still no other Ubud-like life anywhere on earth or outer space.

So let’s be grateful.

Over the years quite a number of property seeking clients came to our first office at the Arjuna statue and shared their thoughts about if, when and where to settle.

Of those a good number have already been traveling to look at other places, their quality of life, their cost of living, the community, or health related issues.  I heard about their experiences in Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brazil, Mexico, Columbia and a few other Countries coming up when looking up “Best places to retire”.

Interestingly enough, I estimate over half of these nomads ‘got stuck’ here.  We meet at the usual places like Bintang or Delta, in a new warung or just the trusted restaurants.  What I find interesting – there is not much complaining going on.  Just talk about life as it happens.  I guess, if one is bored to death, negativity easy creeps into the mindset.  In Ubud, when participating just a bit in what is on offer, boredom is not in your dictionary.

Do you miss the Oscar presentations, Wall Street or Formula 1 racetracks?  I bet not much. This is why you came here.

Given the slow administration, I guess for another decade things will not change too much in Ubud any more. Then we get together again and talk about what to do next …

if needed at all.

I am not a professional writer and as it happens I am sidestepped by my growling stomach and thoughts about  dinner tonight.  The train of thought stopped at  ‘Wild Ginger’ in Jl.

Gero Ganding, the street leading to Ubud Fitness.  A small tidy warung which, in my mind, deserves a 4 star rating and not only because you receive white cloth napkins instead of toilet paper.

Aduh ! Today is Sunday, when they close.

Ah, here we were before - Well, aren’t we lucky, there is some self regulating mechanism in migrant’s choices where to stay: those who never came to Ubud for lack of interest, or those who may prefer Patthaia or Ho Chi Minh City for their own reasons. We sure miss out on those expats, but that doesn’t hurt much, does it?

Ubud is in a league on it’s own. If you would try to line up a group of Ubudian Expat’s and place on the other side of the street a random group migrants from other Countries or areas, not only a trained psychiatrist would see a difference. Try to imagine yourself.

Here you still meet an overwhelming number of real nice characters. They are likeminded folks who chose this lively town and the spirit of the Balinese people and culture.

It is not that Ubud is real pretty. Maybe colorful and attractive because of the vivid street life, but far from pretty or beautiful.  In contrast - last year I was on some Greek Islands and those neat white painted harbor villages were beating Ubud in terms of cleanliness and tourist attraction head over shoulders.

However, who choose to stay here for the long term looks at tourists as a different species, necessary, but slightly on the outside. Living here is like being member of a gentle cult, which is open to anyone. Temporary tourists may not even feel what is going on, as they don’t have time to blend in.  Stop. You are right and I am wrong!  We very likely have been such tourists once too.

“Where is this funny talk leading to?”  You may think.

Well, our last newsletters, written by my colleague Dani S. were about solid matter, such as property investment advice.  Today I am talking soft stuff for a change. 

However, if Ubud would not be as attractive as it still is today, there would be no need to talk about quality of life and ultimately your money or investment here.

Now here the ends are meeting:  The Good Life   a n d   Sound Investment. 

Isn’t that what you rather expect the real estate guys to talk about?

You see, we just went through 4 years of amazing property value adjustments.   Amazing and confusing, because only a few are aware of recurring cycles in the property sector, as shown by long term analysis of market movements.

It is obvious, once prices have been low for some time, people like to buy, which is bringing prices up. 

Next thing happening is that investors are cooling off.  Many hold their buying out of disappointment being too late or some even cannot afford the higher price requests any more…  thus prices are entering a plateau and level out.

Every now and then some ‘fire sales’ happen and suggest that prices are actually going down – which really needs to be seen first in order to believe. So far it never happened on a broad scale, let alone near a town such as Ubud which is still growing in popularity.

Statistics rarely lie outright and now they suggest, there will be about two years of balanced property sales and purchases following.  Buyers are tired of waiting for the right moment and want to purchase, build, rent out or just live and enjoy.  Vendor’s realize there will be no more immediate price hikes and may opt to sell to get cash for other investments or more land banking, as the acquisition of interesting plots is often being referred to.

Why do I talk about this, when you are following the market (proof  > you read this) and know fairly well yourself what is going on?

Well, it gives this warm fuzzy feeling to hear that things are right on track where we like to see them.  Who wishes to sell, will in 2017-19 likely find a buyer who is purchasing at reasonable terms.  Who wants to purchase or lease will be able for some time to look around and find the optimal deal.

However, better don’t drag such thought around for too long.

Right now look at India. 80% of the liquid assets in this huge nation have been made worthless overnight. Immeasurable drama, even suicides have resulted.  Numerous other Countries aim towards a cashless society.

You know what?  Seems like the Keynesian arguments are coming true.  (Maybe you have to look this up in Google, as I did)   Here just in short:

The new Keynesian theory attempts to address, among other things, the sluggish behavior of prices and its cause. The theory explains how market failures could be caused by inefficiencies and might justify government intervention.”

… and now let me guess, which one would make you more happy:  a bag of shiny gold bars under your bed to prepare for economic turmoil,  or a lovely chunk of paradise in Bali to enjoy ?   

If you go for number 2, can this be done legally?   Come on in and let’s look at the options over a cup of Kopi Bali.

 

With best wishes for your health and prosperity,

Ramon

(Sr. advisor / UbudProperty)